The DECIDE BETTER® method

Your gut is a data set. Audit it.

Intuition is compressed experience: reliable in familiar situations, unreliable in novel ones. Intuition and information are partners, and you need a method for when they disagree. When they do, that is the cheapest research you will ever get.

Five rules

The gut sets the bar. The data tests it. You stay accountable.

01
Set the bar before you see the data.
Make your gut testify. Before you open the report or run the model, write down what you expect and the result that would change your mind. Say it to your team.
02
Check confirming data as hard as contradicting data.
If the numbers agree with you, audit them as aggressively as the numbers that do not. We are just not wired to be contrarian to our own beliefs.
03
Make sure the data answers your question.
Every data set answers somebody's question. Make sure it's yours, or you end up precisely wrong and only generally right.
04
Decide on the ingredients, not just the answer.
Name the criteria and weigh them before you argue about the winner. Not everything matters equally; saying so is just not wanting to do the work.
05
Never make a decision you can't explain.
If you cannot say how you got there, the tool decided, not you. The gut sets the bar. The data tests it. You stay accountable for the call.

Match rigor to stakes

Mundane, Important, Epic.

Spend more time on decisions you cannot undo. Spend almost none on the ones you can.

Mundane

Set it, forget it.

Low stakes and easy to undo. Let system one handle it, use a template, and save your attention for what matters.

For example: Vendor renewals, routine scheduling, a team lunch.

Important

Measure twice.

Real consequences, partly reversible. Bring information to the table, weigh the criteria, and invite a second view.

For example: A key hire, a new program, a budget reallocation.

Epic

Measure twice, cut once, seek wise counsel.

Hard or impossible to undo: acquire, shut down, let a key person go. Spend more time on decisions you cannot undo. Run the premortem and the red team.

For example: Mergers, closures, decade-defining investments.

Premortem

Why wait for the postmortem? Run the premortem.

Before you act, imagine it is a year from now and the decision has failed. Each person writes down why. The reasons that surface are the risks you can still do something about. Some teams call it a before-action review.

Red team

Red team your decisions before they are made.

Give someone the job of arguing the other side, with real time and real authority. Those who are often quiet have the most to say: at the edges of the organization is where you will find the greatest signal to noise. Then disagree and commit.

The library

Biases, fallacies, razors and practices.

The canon of decision-making is available but locked up. The Volley library unlocks it: each entry has a meaning, an example and a mitigation. Search it here; save favorites and track completions in the app.

biases, fallacies, razors and practices in the library

Featured entries

Anchoring biasCognitive Biases · Perception

Meaning: Relying too heavily on the first number or idea you hear, then adjusting too little from it.
Example: A board sets next year's budget by nudging last year's figure up 3 percent instead of asking what the work actually needs.
Mitigation: Set the bar before you see the data: write your own estimate first, then compare it with the anchor on the table.

Your gut is a data set. Audit it.

The gut sets the bar. The data tests it. You stay accountable.

Set the bar before you see the data.

Check confirming data as hard as contradicting data.

Make sure the data answers your question.

Decide on the ingredients, not just the answer.

Never make a decision you can't explain.